Open Access Journal Article

An Operational Framework for a Low-carbon, Green Growth Economy: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System

by Ick Jin a,* orcid
a
Director General, Economic Analysis Department of the National Assembly Budget Office, Seoul, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JEA  2024, 79; 3(4), 79; https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03040005
Received: 8 October 2023 / Accepted: 12 November 2023 / Published Online: 15 December 2024
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Abstract

This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and optimization) to simulate the pathways of variables until a target year. The CO-STIRPAT dynamic system allows us to identify the spillover pathways from carbon policy to economic growth based on output optimization principles; to conduct a more systematic analysis of the interconnections between the main drivers that determine carbon emissions; to develop a cost-effective climate policy mix that is a backbone for the right combination of carbon pricing, energy efficiency, and carbon intensity; and to assess NDC targets with respect to ambition gaps, implementation gaps, and feasibility.

Keywords: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); STIRPAT, carbon emission; energy efficiency; carbon intensity; system dynamics;
Copyright: © 2024 by Jin. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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ACS Style
Jin, I. An Operational Framework for a Low-carbon, Green Growth Economy: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024, 3, 79. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03040005
AMA Style
Jin I. An Operational Framework for a Low-carbon, Green Growth Economy: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2024, 3(4):79. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03040005
Chicago/Turabian Style
Jin, Ick 2024. "An Operational Framework for a Low-carbon, Green Growth Economy: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System" Journal of Economic Analysis 3, no.4:79. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03040005
APA style
Jin, I. (2024). An Operational Framework for a Low-carbon, Green Growth Economy: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(4), 79. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03040005

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