In his 1922 review for Cambridge Magazine of Keynes's A Treatise on Probability, and again in his 1926 review "Truth and Probability" (published in 1931 and republished in Kyburg and Smokler's 1980 edition), Ramsey provided examples critiquing Keynes's logical theory of probability. However, these examples do not disprove Keynes's theory as all of them are flawed. The flaws arise because all the pairs of propositions that Ramsey used to substantiate his criticisms are irrelevant to each other. Such irrelevant propositions are explicitly excluded from Keynes's theory in pages 4-6 of his A Treatise on Probability. This paper highlights that Ramsey's examples, which involve irrelevant propositions, do not disprove Keynes's Boolean, relational logic. The only other defense of Keynes's theory, put forth by Watt in 1989, was found to be deficient by Brady in 2022.

Public diplomacy is a significant factor in promoting policy communication, people-to-people bonds, and the protection of foreign assets between two nations, but there is little research on the economic worth of public diplomacy. Python was used to crawl the daily search frequency of "China", "African countries", and related terms to construct the heat index of China-Africa public diplomacy during 2011-2019, and a two-way fixed effect model was developed to examine the impact of public diplomacy on China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in Africa. The empirical results show that public diplomacy has a considerable favorable effect on China’s OFDI in Africa, and after a series of robustness tests, the basic conclusion still holds. Heterogeneity tests show the investment promotion effect of public diplomacy is more pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa and that the promotion mechanism exhibits the characteristics of poverty alleviation and risk aversion. In addition, the promotion effect of public diplomacy on China’s OFDI becomes greater as time goes on. In terms of impact mechanisms, public diplomacy may promote OFDI by enhancing financing capacity and improving national governance. The research conclusion has policy implications for promoting China-Africa public diplomacy and investment cooperation in the new era.

"Climate Economics and Finance" has risen to prominence as a crucial field, encompassing three primary dimensions: Climate Economics, Climate Finance, and the Intersection of Climate Change and Financial Markets. The adverse externalities arising from climate change, exemplifying a classic instance of "market failure" within market economic frameworks, have garnered global attention. Subsequently, we delve into the literature across three dimensions: the interplay between climate change and macroeconomics, the nexus of climate change and financial markets, and economic or financial resilience. In conclusion, we outline various promising avenues for prospective research in the realm of climate economics and finance.

With the intensification of the global ecological crisis, promoting green development has become a key path to achieve sustainable development. Based on the panel data of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2022, this paper systematically examines the impact of scientific and technological talent agglomeration on regional green development and its mechanism of action. The study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of regional green development level, adopts location entropy to measure the degree of scientific and technological talent concentration, and empirically analyses it by using the fixed effect model, mediation effect model and moderating effect model. The study finds that (1) scientific and technological talent concentration has a significant promotion effect on green development, and this conclusion still holds after various robustness tests and endogeneity treatment; (2) from the perspective of regional heterogeneity, the green development effect of scientific and technological talent concentration is significant in the eastern region, while it is not significant in the central and western regions; from the perspective of period heterogeneity, the promotion effect of scientific and technological talent concentration is more significant after the introduction of ‘The Outline of National Innovation-Driven Development Strategy’; from the perspective of Internet development, the promotion effect is more significant; from the perspective of the heterogeneity of period, the promotion effect is more significant; from the perspective of heterogeneity of the level of Internet development, scientific and technological talent agglomeration shows a stronger promotion effect in regions with a lower level of Internet development; (3) the mechanism test shows that scientific and technological talent agglomeration can promote green development through two paths of enhancing the level of public environmental concern and promoting green technological innovation, and at the same time, the level of marketisation and the government's attention to scientific and technological talent can positively regulate this kind of promotion. Based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward policy suggestions to systematically improve the level of regional scientific and technological talent concentration, and to give full play to the effects of external supervision and technological innovation.

The paper studies Philippine poultry data and revisits the chicken or the egg causality problem to include ducks data. Using quarterly Philippine poultry production time-series from the first quarter of 1980 to the last quarter of 2014, this research finds that chickens came from eggs, which is consistent with the earlier statistical results of Thurman and Fisher (1988), and genetics-based conclusions of Eriksson et al. (2008). However, no conclusive evidence was found using the Philippine duck and duck eggs data. The chicken or the egg conundrum demonstrates the power of Granger causality testing in answering questions of temporal ordering that has various causal applications using macroeconomic, financial, and agricultural time-series data.

This paper analyses the influence of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on organizational change in SMEs that have yet to be internationalized. A Likert scale questionnaire was applied to 78 SMEs in the change process. The significance level was sought in an ANOVA (analysis of variance) by linking variables concerning ICT, on the one hand, and the effects of ICT on organizational change, on the other hand, as well as specific issues that may promote or hinder the implementation of organizational change. The findings of this study show that both the frequency and the intensity of the ICT backlog were the most influential elements in change management. The main conclusion is that backwardness can be advantageous in specific economic contexts, mainly when the SMEs are oriented toward a part of the population with less experience in the use of technologies or the company is in a country where ICT consumption is not maximized because ICT has exceeded the needs and expectations of the population.

According to economic theory and common sense, the issuance of consumption coupons on one hand stimulated the increasing of residents' consumption, but on the other pushed up the price level. In this paper, using the theory of mechanism design, the game model was built to analyze the relationship between the effect of consumer coupons during the epidemic and the number of merchants participated. The results show that the smaller the merchants’ number, the weaker the coupons’ effect, vice versa. Then, using KNN regression method, combined with the monthly year-on-year data of CPI from 1998 to 2020, this paper analyzes the changes of CPI forecast value and actual value in the first 10 months of 2020, finding that the actual value of CPI is higher than the predicted one during the first two months of 2020, but lower from March 2020 on, which further verifies the conclusion of game analysis.

This study documents the relationship between economic freedom and unauthorized immigration to the U.S.A. and tries to answer a still-in-debate question, what motivates people to unauthorizedly migrate? Using the generated instrument variables methodology, and a data panel of 15 countries and 16 years, the endogenous variable is the gap in economic freedom between the country of origin and the U.S., and the dependent variable is the unauthorized immigrant’s growth rate. The results show that for each 10% improvement in economic freedom in the country-of-origin unauthorized immigration decreases around 7%. Estimations are robust even after using other covariates and external instruments. The main conclusion is that economic and social factors play a significant role in shaping migration patterns and that the difference in economic freedom between the country of origin and the U.S. plays a fundamental role in deciding to unauthorizedly migrate

With the strengthening of China's economic power and the further implementation of China's open-door policy, China's outward investment has increased year by year. Some international comments are only concerned about the former and there are some public opinions about China's outward investment threatening the host country's environmental quality. This paper takes the carbon emissions of 49 countries along the “Belt and Road” and the acceptance of China's outward FDI as samples, studies the impact of China's outward FDI on the carbon emissions of the relevant countries, and comes to the conclusion that: China's outward FDI is a major factor in China's economic development. It is concluded that China's OFDI increases the total carbon emissions of the countries along the Belt and Road while decreasing the carbon intensity, and the impact is carried out through the three major paths of economic scale, technological level and structural effect.

This paper explores how digital technology reduces trade costs using bilateral trade data from RCEP member countries and a panel fixed effects model. The findings show that digital technology significantly lowers trade costs, a conclusion that holds even after accounting for lag effects and various robustness checks. The impact of digital technology on trade costs follows an inverted U-shape: the effect is most significant in the current period, especially with a one-period lag, and diminishes over time. Larger economies and higher export levels strengthen this negative impact due to their reliance on exports and continuous improvements in domestic digital technology. The study recommends investing in digital infrastructure, formulating reasonable internet access policies, supporting digital skills development, and enhancing digital connectivity to bridge the digital divide, thereby promoting trade facilitation and efficiency.

A high inflation period of seven years (1978-1985) in Israel, which turned into a hyperinflation, puzzled Israeli economists, who tried to understand its causes and mechanisms. As a result, they provided fourteen different explanations. Although all of the explanations were based on the same data, the researchers’ conclusions were either different or contradictory. This situation provides a virtual laboratory for the study of the ways and methods of economic thought; it is a classical Ceteris patribus situation. This laboratory further raises other subjects and questions. Are there principal differences between the economists' explanations? Is it possible to classify these differences? How do economic explanations for inflation differ from non-economic ones? In this article, I classified thirteen economic studies and one non-economic study into five clusters. This was the methodological tool used to inquire into the economic thought in this virtual laboratory.

Since the establishment of neoclassical economics in the nineteenth century, there has been a debate in the economics profession over the role played by mathematics. Mathematics can add precision to discussion of real-world empirical problems in economics, but care needs to be taken when formalizing a problem to ensure that errors of translation are not made. Formalism allows one to be sure that a chain of reasoning is correct but applying conclusions back to an empirical science problem is fraught if an error of translation has been made. We illustrate such a difficulty in the context of Arrow’s impossibility theorem, specifically the mistranslation of the non-dictatorship condition. The notion of dictatorship entails causality, but causality does not correspond to the usage of the implication sign in mathematics or logic. We use the rules of logic to illustrate that the way that dictatorship is rendered mathematically in the impossibility theorem makes the existence of a dictator (or dictators) not only reasonable but likely.

With the development of information technology and its application in environmental governance, the role of the internet in improving energy efficiency and reducing energy-saving potential (ESP) has attracted more attention. In this study, the slack-based model (SBM) and the unexpected model, along with the entropy method, were applied to measure China's energy-saving potential and internet development. Further, we empirically analyzed the direct effect, mediating effect, threshold effect, and regional heterogeneity of the internet on ESP. Our conclusion shows that there is a significant spatial correlation between internet penetration and ESP. Internet penetration has become an important tool for reducing ESP, but this effect shows regional heterogeneity. Human capital accumulation, financial development, and industrial upgrading are important influencing mechanisms, but indirect effects are weaker than direct effects. The impact of internet penetration on ESP is non-linear, and for improving human capital accumulation, financial development, and industrial upgrading, the role of internet popularization in energy conservation is more obvious.

This paper examines the efficiency, in its weak form, of the clean energy stock indices, Clean Coal Technologies, Clean Energy Fuels, and Wilderhill, as well as the cryptocurrencies classified as "dirty", due to their excessive energy consumption, such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETH Classic), and Litecoin (LTC), from January 2020 to May 30, 2023. In order to meet the research objectives, the aim is to answer the following research question, namely whether: i) the events of 2020 and 2022 accentuated the persistence in the clean energy and dirty energy indices? The results show that clean energy indices such as digital currencies classified as "dirty" show autocorrelation in their returns; the prices are not independent and identically distributed (i.i.d). In conclusion, arbitrage strategies can be used to obtain abnormal returns, but caution is needed as prices can rise above their real market value and reduce trading profitability. This study contributes to the knowledge base on sustainable finance by teaching investors how to use forecasting strategies on the future values of their investments.

The low-carbon city pilot is an important policy for promoting sustainable development and addressing climate change. The level of green technological innovation is a significant driving force for China's transition to high-quality development and the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This essay takes the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2020 as the research sample, regards the number of urban green invention patent applications as a quantifiable indicator of the level of urban green technological innovation, and takes the policy of low-carbon city pilot as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the difference-in-differences model to test the impact of low-carbon city pilot on the level of urban green technological innovation, and to investigate the mechanism of action within. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The policy of low-carbon city pilot has an outstanding promotion effect on the level of urban technological innovation. (2) Using the mediating effect to analyze, it is found that the low-carbon city pilot policy can improve the level of urban green technological innovation through the development of green finance.

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2011 to 2019 for a total of 9 years, this paper uses the entropy method to construct a comprehensive measure of the digital economy and common prosperity. We theoretically analyzed the impact mechanism of the digital economy on common prosperity using the econometric model. The study found that the digital economy can significantly promote the realization of common prosperity. The digital economy has a significant impact on the development and sustainability of common prosperity. The results of the impact mechanism show that the digital economy promotes common prosperity by increasing entrepreneurial activity. Heterogeneity research shows that the role of digital economy in promoting common prosperity changes with different regions. Specifically, the digital economy in the central and western regions can significantly promote the realization of common prosperity, but this impact is not significant in the eastern region. From the regression results of the digital economy, we can see that industrial digitalization and digital infrastructure play a greater role in promoting common prosperity. Economic openness affects the promotion of digital economy to common prosperity. The conclusion of this work provides an important research reference for the development of digital economy and the realization of common prosperity.

Fintech has revolutionized financial service models, but can it effectively address enterprise financing challenges and provide critical support for technological innovation—a cornerstone of new quality productive forces? Leveraging data from A-share listed companies (2011–2023), this study constructs a regional fintech development index based on the distribution of fintech firms across China and evaluates its impact on enterprise-level productive forces. The findings demonstrate that fintech significantly fosters new productive forces, a conclusion robust to instrumental variables, Heckman two-stage analysis, and alternative variable tests. Mechanism analysis reveals three key channels: mitigating information asymmetry, alleviating collateral constraints, and enhancing market competition. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that fintech’s impact is more pronounced among private enterprises, high-tech industries, and firms in eastern regions. As China prioritizes the development of new productive forces, sustained fintech advancement, deeper "data empowerment," and targeted policy measures are essential to ensure finance effectively serves the real economy and underpins high-quality economic growth.

This study analyzed whether the level of corporate governance of companies listed on the Brazilian capital market is related to the investment decisions of Brazilian pension funds. We start from the assumption that the corporate governance system mitigates the moral risk, that may arise in the relationship between corporate managers and investors and respective shareholders, Brazilian pension funds. Shareholding dispersion would enable opportunism for corporate managers, making decisions focused on their interests to the detriment of shareholders or investors. The governance system would signal that this behavior would be controlled, signaling safer behavior for investors. Thus, the hypothesis is that the level of corporate governance would attract pension funds that would understand this system as reducing investment risk. To test this, we used panel data, with a sample of 1,582 observations of companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) from 2010 to 2017. The statistical results show that corporate governance positively correlates with investment in pension funds. This leads to the conclusion that, for Brazilian pension funds, companies' signaling about their corporate governance practices is a risk-mitigating factor. Furthermore, these results allow us to infer that the company's governance level associated with leverage is a differentiating signaling element as the evidence points to a positive relationship.

Human factor inputs are key to promoting agricultural modernisation. Traditional economic theory suggests that improving human capital is the key to boosting agricultural productivity, but can this conclusion hold in China's dualistic economic structure? We use Chinese provincial panel data from 2000-2017 to examine the impact of rural human capital inputs on agricultural total factor productivity. We find that, on the whole, rural human capital inputs have a negative effect on agricultural total factor productivity, and that there is a "rural human capital trap". Mechanism analysis reveals that rural human capital inputs, on the one hand, cause labour loss and reduce the quality of agricultural workers, while on the other hand, they may promote the application of mechanization, which has both positive and negative effects on agricultural total factor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis finds that this negative effect is more pronounced in the central region of China because of the serious loss of rural labour. This study provides new policy insights for further improving the structure of rural education inputs and promoting human capital accumulation in agriculture.

As the COVID-19 epidemic swept the world in early 2020, it is worth watching how it affects the total factor productivity of enterprises. Based on the theory of information asymmetry and the data of A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2021, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between COVID-19 and the total factor productivity of enterprises. The results show that the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic can significantly reduce the total factor productivity of enterprises, and the conclusion is still true after a series of robustness tests. Taking the financing constraint as an intervening variable, it clearly reveals a transmission mechanism, that is to say, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic exacerbates the financing constraint of the enterprise, thus it makes the total factor productivity of the enterprise reduce. It is further found that the above effects are more obvious for small and medium-sized enterprises and non-intelligent enterprises. Based on this, the government should implement some active economic development policies to create a free, relaxed and orderly market environment for enterprise financing. At the same time, enterprises should not only pay attention to digital and intelligent development, and transform into technology-intensive enterprises, but also strengthen the awareness of worry. Enterprises should store "more grain" for preparing for the cold winter.