Open Access Journal Article

Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach

by Zohra Aroussi a orcid Mekki Hamdaoui b,* orcid  and  Mounir Smida a orcid
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Higher Institute of Informatics and Management of Kairouan (ISIGK), Modeling, Financing and Economic Development (MOFID-LR21ES28), University of Kairouan, Kairouan, Tunisia
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JEA  2024, 63; 3(3), 63;
Received: 3 July 2023 / Accepted: 10 August 2023 / Published Online: 15 September 2024


In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

Copyright: © 2024 by Aroussi, Hamdaoui and Smida. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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ACS Style
Aroussi, Z.; Hamdaoui, M.; Smida, M. Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024, 3, 63.
AMA Style
Aroussi Z, Hamdaoui M, Smida M. Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2024, 3(3):63.
Chicago/Turabian Style
Aroussi, Zohra; Hamdaoui, Mekki; Smida, Mounir 2024. "Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach" Journal of Economic Analysis 3, no.3:63.
APA style
Aroussi, Z., Hamdaoui, M., & Smida, M. (2024). Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(3), 63.

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