Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach
by
Zohra Aroussi
a
,
Mekki Hamdaoui
b,*
and
Mounir Smida
a
a
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
b
Higher Institute of Informatics and Management of Kairouan (ISIGK), Modeling, Financing and Economic Development (MOFID-LR21ES28), University of Kairouan, Kairouan, Tunisia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.
Aroussi, Z.; Hamdaoui, M.; Smida, M. Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024, 3, 63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
AMA Style
Aroussi Z, Hamdaoui M, Smida M. Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2024, 3(3):63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Aroussi, Zohra; Hamdaoui, Mekki; Smida, Mounir 2024. "Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach" Journal of Economic Analysis 3, no.3:63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
APA style
Aroussi, Z., Hamdaoui, M., & Smida, M. (2024). Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(3), 63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
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