Open Access Journal Article

Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach

by Zohra Aroussi a orcid ,  Mekki Hamdaoui b,* orcid  and  Mounir Smida a orcid
a
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
b
Higher Institute of Informatics and Management of Kairouan (ISIGK), Modeling, Financing and Economic Development (MOFID-LR21ES28), University of Kairouan, Kairouan, Tunisia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JEA  2024, 63; 3(3), 63; https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
Received: 3 July 2023 / Accepted: 10 August 2023 / Published Online: 15 September 2024
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Abstract

In this work we aim to identify potential determinants and seek to predict terrorism attack. Thus, to eliminate uncertainty linked to explanatory variables we used the BMA method. We show that, contrary to expectations terrorism in MENA region is no longer purely of economic origin but mainly due to political problems, education, financial development and countries’ demographic characteristics. Likewise, we find that national, international and global terrorism are not of same origins even they present many common roots. In the end, we show that it is possible to predict majority of attacks based on a small number of indicators measuring political risk, financial development and income inequalities.

Keywords: Terrorism; MENA; Bayesian Model Averaging; Logit; Early warning system;
Copyright: © 2024 by Aroussi, Hamdaoui and Smida. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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ACS Style
Aroussi, Z.; Hamdaoui, M.; Smida, M. Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024, 3, 63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
AMA Style
Aroussi Z, Hamdaoui M, Smida M. Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2024, 3(3):63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Aroussi, Zohra; Hamdaoui, Mekki; Smida, Mounir 2024. "Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach" Journal of Economic Analysis 3, no.3:63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001
APA style
Aroussi, Z., Hamdaoui, M., & Smida, M. (2024). Determinants of terrorism in the MENA region: a Bayesian Model Averaging based approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(3), 63. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03030001

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