Open Access Journal Article

College Selectivity, Choice of Major, and Post-College Earnings

by William Brian Muse a,*  and  Iryna Muse b orcid
a
Mathematics department, Columbus State University, Columbus, USA
b
Assistant Vice Chancellor, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JEA  2024, 55; 3(2), 55; https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03020003
Received: 22 June 2023 / Accepted: 20 July 2023 / Published Online: 15 June 2024

Abstract

College choice and choice of major are the most important decisions for future earnings. It is still unclear, however, what makes a greater difference—college or major—or whether a choice of college matters more for some majors, but not the others. Using cross-classified models and College Scorecard data, I show that a discipline is more consequential for future earnings than a college. The effect of STEM is substantial but is less pronounced at institutions with higher overall median earnings. The effect of college selectivity on earnings is more pronounced for non-STEM disciplines. Institutional characteristics—such as tuition, shares of graduates receiving different forms of financial aid, institutional size and location, and type of college—correlate with earnings of graduates. Racial and gender composition of an educational program correlate with expected earnings of its graduates even after control for other institutional and disciplinary characteristics. Models presented here provide a better understanding of the effect of college and major choices on future earnings.


Copyright: © 2024 by Muse and Muse. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

Share and Cite

ACS Style
Muse, W. B.; Muse, I. College Selectivity, Choice of Major, and Post-College Earnings. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2024, 3, 55. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03020003
AMA Style
Muse W B, Muse I. College Selectivity, Choice of Major, and Post-College Earnings. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2024, 3(2):55. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03020003
Chicago/Turabian Style
Muse, William B.; Muse, Iryna 2024. "College Selectivity, Choice of Major, and Post-College Earnings" Journal of Economic Analysis 3, no.2:55. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03020003
APA style
Muse, W. B., & Muse, I. (2024). College Selectivity, Choice of Major, and Post-College Earnings. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(2), 55. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03020003

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

References

  1. ACT (2018). ACT / SAT Concordance. Retrieved on May 26, 2022 at https://www.act.org/content/act/en/products-and-services/the-act/scores/act-sat-concordance.html
  2. Becker, G. S. (1964). Human Capital. New York: Columbia University Press. www.nber.org/books/beck-5
  3. Benoit, K. (2011). Linear Regression Models with Logarithmic Transformations. Methodology Institute, London School of Economics, 8p. Retrieved on March 10, 2022 at https://kenbenoit.net/assets/courses/ME104/logmodels2.pdf .
  4. Bickel, R. (2007). Multilevel Analysis for Applied Research: It's Just Regression! New York: Guilford Press. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjpe.025.008
  5. Black, D.A. and Smith, J.A. (2006). Estimating the Returns to College Quality with Multiple Proxies for Quality. Journal of Labor Economics, 24(3): 701-728. https://doi.org/10.1086/505067
  6. Bourdieu, P. (1984). Distinction. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. https://books.google.com/books/about/Distinction.html?id=nVaS6gS9Jz4C
  7. Bourdieu, P. (1988). Homo Academicus. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/68.4.1317
  8. Brewer, D. J., Eide, E. R., & Ehrenberg, R. G. (1999). Does It Pay to Attend an Elite Private College? Cross-Cohort Evidence on the Effects of College Type on Earnings. The Journal of Human Resources, 34(1): 104-123. https://doi.org/10.2307/146304
  9. Broady, K. and Hershbein, B. (2020). Major Decisions: What Graduates Earn Over Their Lifetimes. The Hamilton Project, Brooking Institution. Retrieved at https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/10/08/major-decisions-what-graduates-earn-over-their-lifetimes/ on March 22, 2022.
  10. Cantwell, B. (2022). Against Social-Mobility Rankings. They tell a simple story: Harvard’s bad, CUNY and Cal State are good. It’s not that straightforward. The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved on March 23, 2022 at https://www.chronicle.com/article/against-social-mobility-rankings .
  11. Carnevale, A. P., Cheah, B., and Hansen, A. R. (2015). The economic value of college majors. Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce; 2015. Retrieved on May 23, 2022 at https://1gyhoq479ufd3yna29x7ubjn-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/The-Economic-Value-of-College-Majors-Full-Report-web-FINAL.pdf
  12. Cellini, S. R. (2021). For‐Profit Colleges in the United States: Insights from Two Decades of Research. (EdWorkingPaper: 21-398). Retrieved on May 22, 2022 from Annenberg Institute at Brown University at https://www.edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai21-398.pdf
  13. Charles, M. and Bradley, K. (2009). Indulging Our Gendered Selves? Sex Segregation by Field of Study in 44 Countries. American Journal of Sociology, 114(4): 924-976. https://doi.org/10.1086/595942
  14. Cox, R. D. (2016). Complicating conditions: Obstacles and interruptions to low-income students’ college “choices.” The Journal of Higher Education, 87(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1353/jhe.2016.0005
  15. Dale, S. B. and Krueger, A. B. (2002). Estimating the payoff to attending a more selective college: An application of selection on observables and unobservables. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4): Pages 1491–1527. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935089
  16. Davies, S., & Guppy, N. (1997). Field of study, college selectivity, and student inequalities in higher education. Social Forces, 75, 1417–1438. https://doi.org/10.2307/2580677
  17. Delisle, J.D. and Christensen, C. (2020). Economic Mobility Conundrums: A Closer Look at the Opportunity Insights University Rankings. American Enterprise Institute. Retrieved at https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Economic-Mobility-Conundrums.pdf?x91208 on May 19, 2022.
  18. Deming, D.J. and Figlio, D. (2016). Accountability in US education: Applying lessons from K–12 experience to higher education. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(3): 33–56. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.3.33
  19. Division of Consumer and Community Affairs (DCCA). (2022). Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2021. Retrieved on May 25, 2022 at https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2021-report-economic-well-being-us-households-202205.pdf .
  20. Eide, E. R., Hilmer, M.J., Showalter, M. H. (2016). Is it where you go or what you study? The relative influence of college selectivity and college major on earnings. Contemporary Economic Policy, 34(1): 37-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12115
  21. England, P. and Li, S. (2006). Desegregation Stalled. The Changing Gender Composition of College Majors, 1971-2002. Gender & Society, 20(5): 657-677. https://doi.org/10.1177/0891243206290753
  22. Faber, A. and Slantcheva-Durst, S. (2021). The impact of community college attributes on the earnings of their students. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 45(9): 687-700. https://doi.org/10.1080/10668926.2020.1798302
  23. Fitzgerald, R.A. and Burns, S. (2000). College Quality and the Earnings of Recent College Graduates. U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics, NCES 2000–043, Washington, DC. Retrieved at https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2000/2000043.pdf on May 18, 2022.
  24. Gerber, T. P and Cheung, S. Y. (2008). Horizontal stratification in postsecondary education: Forms, explanations, and implications. Annual Review of Sociology, 34: 299-318. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.34.040507.134604
  25. Gilpin, G., & Stoddard, C. (2017). Does regulating for‐profit colleges improve educational outcomes? Response to Cellini and Koedel. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 36(4): 953‐956. https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22011
  26. Herschbein, B., Kearney, M. (2014). Major decisions: What graduates earn over their lifetime. The Hamilton Project Report. Retrieved on May 23 at http://hamiltonproject.org/papers/major_decisions_what_graduates_earn_over_their_lifetimes/
  27. Hoekstra, M. (2009). The effect of attending the flagship state university on earnings: A discontinuity-based approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(4): 717–724. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.4.717
  28. Itzkowitz, M. (2022). Out With the Old, In With the New: Rating Higher Ed by Economic Mobility. Retrieved at https://thirdway.imgix.net/pdfs/override/Out-with-the-Old_In-with-the-New.pdf on May 20, 2022.
  29. Jacobs, J.A. (1996). Gender inequality and higher education. Annual Review of Sociology, 22: 153 – 185. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.22.1.153
  30. James, E., Alsalam, N., Conaty, J.C., To, D.-L. (1989). College quality and future earnings: Where should you send your child to college? The American Economic Review, 79(2): 247-252. https://doi.org/10.17848/9780880995542.ch5
  31. Jaschik, S. (2018). The 'U.S. News' Rankings' (Faux?) Embrace of Social Mobility. Inside Higher Ed. Retrieved on March 23, 2022 at https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2018/09/10/us-news-says-it-has-shifted-rankings-focus-social-mobility-has-it.
  32. Julian, T. (2012). Work-life earnings by field of degree and occupation for people with a bachelor’s degree: 2011. American Community Survey Briefs 11-04. 2012 Retrieved on May 23, 2022 at https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED537269.pdf .
  33. Kim, C., Tamborini. C.R, and Sakamoto, A. (2015). Field of Study in College and Lifetime Earnings in the United States. Sociology of Education, 88(4): 320–339. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038040715602132
  34. Kolte, T. (2021). Mapping your Future: Do College Locations Impact Future Earnings and Job Placement? Retrieved on March 22, 2022 at https://escholarship.org/uc/item/41s579fx
  35. Kopecny, S. and Hillmert, S. (2021). Place of study, field of study and labour-market region: What matters for wage differences among higher-education graduates? Journal for Labour Market Research, 19(55). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12651-021-00301-4
  36. Kreft, I., & de Leeuw, J. (1998). Introducing Multilevel Modeling. Sage Publications, Inc. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781849209366
  37. Ma, J., Pender, M., and Welch, M. (2019). Education Pays. The Benefits of Higher Education for Individuals and Society. College Board, 44 p. Retrieved on March 22 at https://research.collegeboard.org/media/pdf/education-pays-2019-full-report.pdf .
  38. Ma, Y. and Savas, G. (2014). Which is more consequential: Fields of study or institutional selectivity? The Review of Higher Education, 37(2): 221-247. https://doi.org/10.1353/rhe.2014.0001
  39. Mabel, Z., Libassi, C.J., and Hurwitz, M. (2019). The value of using early-career earnings data in the College Scorecard to guide college choices. (EdWorkingPaper: 19-111). Retrieved on March 22, 2022 from Annenberg Institute at Brown University: http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai19-111
  40. Manzoni, A. and Streib, J. (2019). The equalizing power of a college degree for first-generation college students: Disparities across institutions, majors, and achievement levels. Research in Higher Education , 60: 577–605. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-018-9523-1
  41. Melguizo, T., Wolniak, G. C. (2012). The earnings benefits of majoring in STEM fields among high achieving minority students. Research in Higher Education, 53(4): 383-405 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-011-9238-z
  42. National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics. (2019). Women, minorities, and persons with disabilities in science and engineering: 2019, (Report No. 19–304). National Science Foundation. https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsf19304/
  43. Paulsen, M. B. (2001). The economics of human capital and investment in higher education. In M. B. Paulsen and J. C. Smart (Eds.), The finance of higher education: Theory, research, policy, and practice (pp. 55–94). New York: Agathon Press. https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=9O9NBAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA55&dq=info:VEDsFWnC4HoJ:scholar.google.com&ots=aOYnCsoULR&sig=vAr4uqUDEajvrGJaL14Vsrzbb3Y#v=onepage&q&f=false
  44. Pillinger, R. (n.d.) Random intercept models. A transcript of random intercept models presentation. Retrieved on May 22, 2022, at http://www.bristol.ac.uk/cmm/learning/videos/random-intercepts.html .
  45. Postsecondary Value Commission. (2021). Equitable Value Explorer. Retrieved on May 27, at https://equity.postsecondaryvalue.org/ .
  46. Quadlin, N., Cohenb, E. D., VanHeuvelenc, T. (2021). Same major, same economic returns? College selectivity and earnings inequality in young adulthood. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 75: 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100647
  47. Raudenbush, A. S., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/hierarchical-linear-models/book9230
  48. Raudenbush, A. S., Bryk, A. S., Cheong, Y. F., & Congdon, R. T. (2004). HLM 6: Hierarchical linear and nonlinear modeling. Lincolnwood: Scientific Software International. https://books.google.com/books/about/HLM_6.html?id=VdmVtz6Wtc0C
  49. Riegle-Crumb, C., King, B., and Irizarry, Y. (2019), Does STEM stand out? Examining racial/ethnic gaps in persistence across postsecondary fields. Educational Researcher, 48(3), 133–144 https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189x19831006
  50. Ro, H. K., Meng, Y., and Zhu, Q. (2019). STEM Bachelor's degree attainment among women of color in the United States. Using geographic analysis for gender and racial equity research. In Ro, H. K., Fernandez, F., and Ramon, E.J. (Eds.) Equity in STEM in Higher Education: International Perspectives on Policy, Institutional Culture, and Individual Choice, 62-84. Routledge. London; New York. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003053217-65
  51. Spence M. (1973). Job market signaling. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87: 355–374 https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
  52. Stuber, J. (2005). Asset or liability? The importance of context in the occupational experiences of upwardly mobile white adults. Sociological Forum, 20(1), 139–166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11206-005-1900-9
  53. U.S. Census Bureau. (2015). American Community Survey (ACS) 1-Year Estimates Detailed Tables. Retrieved on February 22, 2022 at https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=gini&g=0100000US%240400000&tid=ACSDT1Y2015.B19083
  54. U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). (2022), DHS STEM Designated Degree Program List. Retrieved on February 2022 at https://www.ice.gov/sites/default/files/documents/stem-list.pdf
  55. Witteveen, D., Attewell, P. (2017). The earnings payoff from attending a selective college. Social Science Research, 66: 154-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2017.01.005