Open Access Journal Article

Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach

by Ick Jin a,* orcid
Director General, Economic Analysis Department of the National Assembly Budget Office, Seoul, Korea
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JEA  2023, 38; 2(4), 38;
Received: 31 May 2023 / Accepted: 17 June 2023 / Published Online: 21 June 2023


This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named CO-STIRPAT) to data observed in South Korea shows that the probability that the predicted pathway with existing climate technology will stay above the NDC target pathway is significantly high. The result suggests that it is necessary to design a climate policy to improve energy intensity and carbon intensity by accelerating the advance in climate technology.

Copyright: © 2023 by Jin. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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ACS Style
Jin, I. Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2023, 2, 38.
AMA Style
Jin I. Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach. Journal of Economic Analysis; 2023, 2(4):38.
Chicago/Turabian Style
Jin, Ick 2023. "Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach" Journal of Economic Analysis 2, no.4:38.
APA style
Jin, I. (2023). Probability of Achieving NDC and Implications for Climate Policy: CO-STIRPAT Approach. Journal of Economic Analysis, 2(4), 38.

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