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Open Access Journal Article

Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply

by Xiaomei Lv a ,  Lunwu Liu a,*  and  Min Bai b
a
International College, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, China
b
School of Accounting Finance and Economics, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
EAL  2025 4(1):77; https://doi.org/10.58567/eal04010006
Received: 20 February 2025 / Accepted: 4 April 2025 / Published Online: 22 May 2025
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Abstract

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began on February 24, 2022, on natural gas prices and supply security in major global markets. Six months after the conflict's onset, natural gas prices surged by an average of 78.65% across international markets. Notably, prices in the European Union, Russia, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea saw substantial increases, while price hikes in China, the United States, and Australia were comparatively smaller. Despite these price fluctuations, the security of natural gas supply in key international markets remained largely unaffected. Using the Differences-in-Differences (DID) method, the study analyzed the conflict's impact on supply security, employing a mediation effects model to examine the roles of supply, demand, and price. The findings reveal that the conflict significantly reduced natural gas supply security, with negative effects on both supply and demand, although price changes did not mediate this reduction in supply security. Furthermore, the regional impact on supply security was minimal, likely due to the high integration of the global natural gas market. Overall, the Russia-Ukraine conflict notably influenced natural gas supply security by affecting supply and demand factors.

Keywords: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Supply Security; Natural Gas Prices; International Markets;
Copyright: © 2025 by Lv, Liu and Bai. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Cite This Paper
APA Style
Lv, X., Liu, L., & Bai, M. (2025). Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply. Economic Analysis Letters, 4(1), 77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006
ACS Style
Lv, X.; Liu, L.; Bai, M. Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply. Economic Analysis Letters, 2025, 4, 77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006
AMA Style
Lv X, Liu L, Bai M. Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply. Economic Analysis Letters; 2025, 4(1):77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006
Chicago/Turabian Style
Lv, Xiaomei; Liu, Lunwu; Bai, Min 2025. "Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply" Economic Analysis Letters 4, no.1:77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006

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ACS Style
Lv, X.; Liu, L.; Bai, M. Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply. Economic Analysis Letters, 2025, 4, 77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006
AMA Style
Lv X, Liu L, Bai M. Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply. Economic Analysis Letters; 2025, 4(1):77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006
Chicago/Turabian Style
Lv, Xiaomei; Liu, Lunwu; Bai, Min 2025. "Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply" Economic Analysis Letters 4, no.1:77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006
APA style
Lv, X., Liu, L., & Bai, M. (2025). Geopolitical Challenges and Natural Gas Supply. Economic Analysis Letters, 4(1), 77. doi:10.58567/eal04010006

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