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Open Access Journal Article

Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria

by Dalhatu Bello a,*
a
Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, Garki Abuja, Nigeria
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
CEF  2025 3(1):8; https://doi.org/10.58567/cef03010001
Received: 7 October 2024 / Accepted: 14 March 2025 / Published Online: 10 June 2025
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Abstract

This is the first study to examine how Nigerian output is affected by the news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index by Tumala et al. (2023) and Climate Uncertainty Index by Salisu et al. (2023). Using ARDL and Granger causality on quarterly data from 2016Q2 to 2024Q1, the findings show that increased economic and climate uncertainties result in decreased output. Additionally, the study reveals that climate uncertainty has a more significant effect on output compared to economic policy uncertainty. The Granger causality indicates one-way causality from climate uncertainty to output, thereby reinforcing the substantial influence of climate uncertainty on output in Nigeria.

Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainty; Climate Uncertainty; Output; ARDL; Nigeria;
Copyright: © 2025 by Bello. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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APA Style
Bello, D. (2025). Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria. Climate Economics and Finance, 3(1), 8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001
ACS Style
Bello, D. Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria. Climate Economics and Finance, 2025, 3, 8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001
AMA Style
Bello D. Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria. Climate Economics and Finance; 2025, 3(1):8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Bello, Dalhatu 2025. "Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria" Climate Economics and Finance 3, no.1:8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001

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ACS Style
Bello, D. Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria. Climate Economics and Finance, 2025, 3, 8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001
AMA Style
Bello D. Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria. Climate Economics and Finance; 2025, 3(1):8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Bello, Dalhatu 2025. "Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria" Climate Economics and Finance 3, no.1:8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001
APA style
Bello, D. (2025). Navigating Economic and Climate Uncertainties on Output: A Case Study of Nigeria. Climate Economics and Finance, 3(1), 8. doi:10.58567/cef03010001

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