This paper examines the information content of selected US industries focusing on the dynamic linkages among these industries, the stock market and a number of fundamental variables. The period of investigation spans from January 1960 to December 2021. The empirical strategy includes several methodologies such as regressions, vector autoregressions and volatility models. The idea is to investigate the dynamic linkages among these series at both the mean and the volatility levels. The results point to significant industry returns’ explanatory power for many predictors of economic activity including the stock market. Further, time-varying analysis of the linkages among the industries and the stock market’s returns reveal that certain industries such as Oil and Financials provide consistent information leadership over other industries and across decades. Further, upon assessing the industry–market return volatility spillovers, it was found that a market risk–return profile may not always be economically significant and timely for investors. Finally, crises, financial or otherwise, affect industries but to differing degrees.

Traditionally, conditions of sustainability of the public debt have long been related quite exclusively to fiscal policy and to budgetary parameters. However, the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies regarding the fixation of the interest rate is fundamental. Indeed, a simple analytical modelling shows that if the nominal interest rate increases exponentially with the public debt, because of a default (credit) risk premium, if the confidence of investors is fundamental, conditions of sustainability of the public debt could be much more difficult to comply with. Indeed, if the interest rate is risk-free, values for which the public debt can be sustainable are less constraining if the long-term GDP growth rate is high, or if the long-term risk-free nominal interest rate is small. They are also less constraining if the country decides to turn to a non-negligible primary budget surplus in case of a high public debt. However, if the interest rate exponentially increases with the public debt level, in case of a significant importance of the default (credit) risk premium, these parameters have very limited consequences on sustainable and equilibrium public debt levels. The sustainable public debt that a government should target is then much smaller than in absence of this risk premium.

Deposit dollarization in Turkey has been on the rise, reaching record levels in 2022. This was caused by the worsening macroeconomic fundamentals along with the transition to the presidential system in 2018 and the associated deviation from the monetary policy stance afterward. The unique case of Turkey presents an excellent natural experiment to explore the dynamics of deposit dollarization and how it is affected by the changes in the institutional structure as well as various social, economic, and financial shocks in a relatively short time. This study examines the time varying reactions of deposit dollarization for the period between 2013 and 2022 based on rolling window maximum entropy bootstrap estimates. Our findings reveal that all the model variables had significant and sometimes asymmetric effects on deposit dollarization during the different stages of this turbulent period. In particular, we observe diminishing effects of real exchange rate, policy credibility and consumer confidence over time. The findings provide ample new evidence regarding the dynamics of deposit dollarization in general, and how it is affected by loss of monetary policy credibility.

Forecasting stock prices remains a fundamental yet complex challenge in financial economics due to the nonlinearity, volatility, and exogenous shocks characterizing market behavior. This paper proposes a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for time-series modeling with Transformer-based architectures for textual sentiment extraction from financial news. The goal is to enhance predictive accuracy by combining structured historical data with unstructured semantic signals. Using three years of daily data from Apple Inc. (AAPL), the model captures endogenous price dynamics via LSTM and incorporates contemporaneous market sentiment through FinBERT, a Transformer model pretrained on financial text. Empirical results show that the hybrid model outperforms price-only baselines across multiple evaluation metrics, including mean squared error (MSE) and directional accuracy. The incorporation of sentiment features proves particularly valuable around earnings announcements and event-driven volatility regimes. This study contributes to the literature on machine learning in finance by demonstrating the complementary strengths of multimodal learning, offering a more interpretable and robust framework for stock price prediction. The findings also open avenues for future research in real-time forecasting, reinforcement learning integration, and the application of hybrid models across diverse asset classes.

Exiting literature and central banks have recently raised concerns about the ominous overlooked threat of growing global debt, and its fundamental role in financial crises and economic instability. This paper develops and models an alternative economic theory that calls for a paradigm shift from the prevailing debt-based financial economy. Through a structured literature review and conceptual analysis, the paper explores the relationship between the traditional interest-based financial economy and economic injustice and instability. The paper then through an econometric analysis of data collected from 189 countries tests its conceptualised theory advocating a gradual transition from the deb-based financial economy. The results provide three important contributions. Firstly, the results contribute to the field of economics and finance by providing a conceptual and theoretical framework for examining the interaction between the financial economy and economic equity. The paper introduces a conceptualisation of what it coins as the Equitable Optimality Economic Theory, which replaces interest rate with profit rate. Secondly, the paper extends the debate in the literature about debt theories and its impact on the financial economy by arguing that a shift towards debt-balanced and eventually debt-free financial economy provides a more equitable and stable economic system. Thirdly, the econometric modelling demonstrates that such a change would lead to improved economic growth, reduced debt levels, enhanced financial stability, and the inherent nature of profit rates provides a natural buffer against economic downturns. The study concludes by proposing a practical roadmap for this economic transition in gradual and steady approach.