Open Access Journal Article

Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas

by Diego Vallarino a,*
a
Independent Researcher, Atlanta, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
JRE  2025 4(1):17; https://doi.org/10.58567/jre04010001
Received: 1 March 2024 / Accepted: 27 June 2024 / Published Online: 2 July 2025
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Abstract

This study investigates the efficacy of diverse machine learning survival models, including Cox, Kernel SVM, DeepSurv, Survival Random Forest, and MTLR models, employing the concordance index to assess their predictive abilities. The primary objective of this research is to identify the most accurate model for forecasting the time it takes for a country to witness a 10% surge in unemployment within a 120-month timeframe (2013-2022), utilizing variables from the MVI dataset of 28 American countries. Through the comparative evaluation of complex survival models, we discovered that DeepSurv, a sophisticated machine learning algorithm, excels in capturing intricate nonlinear relationships, while conventional models exhibit comparable performance under specific circumstances. The weight matrix, a pivotal element of our analysis, meticulously assesses the economic repercussions of various risk factors, vulnerabilities, and capabilities.

Keywords: Probability Forecasting; Regional Forecasting; Survival Forecasting; Machine Learning; Unemployment Forecasting;
Copyright: © 2025 by Vallarino. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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APA Style
Vallarino, D. (2025). Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas. Journal of Regional Economics, 4(1), 17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001
ACS Style
Vallarino, D. Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas. Journal of Regional Economics, 2025, 4, 17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001
AMA Style
Vallarino D. Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas. Journal of Regional Economics; 2025, 4(1):17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Vallarino, Diego 2025. "Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas" Journal of Regional Economics 4, no.1:17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001

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ACS Style
Vallarino, D. Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas. Journal of Regional Economics, 2025, 4, 17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001
AMA Style
Vallarino D. Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas. Journal of Regional Economics; 2025, 4(1):17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001
Chicago/Turabian Style
Vallarino, Diego 2025. "Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas" Journal of Regional Economics 4, no.1:17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001
APA style
Vallarino, D. (2025). Decoding the Puzzle of Joblessness: Machine Learning Predicts Unemployment Trends in the Americas. Journal of Regional Economics, 4(1), 17. doi:10.58567/jre04010001

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